Could 2014 mean the end of humanity ?

The meteor/comet idea seems like nonsense to me. Even if all of humanity only had a few days warning, that would be more than enough time to launch a nuclear missile at the comet and completely destroy it.

Hm, I don’t know much about comets, but is a nuclear bomb capable of destroying it? Maybe if we throw all the nuclear bombs we have, that will work and we’re finally rid of them :wink:

all i know is we better hear from someone if they know we are getting hit by an unstoppable asteriod. Screw mass hysteria, any1 who goes into panic is a dumbass anyway. The reason i say they better do that is because if we all knew we only had a few days left to live the whole planet might come togather in harmoney (then again maybe not) i know wut i would do. Quit my job, spend all my money and party with friends and family.

it would be funny if as the comet neared, the civilisation that had evolved on it used all it’s nuclear weaponry against the threat(earth) of collision
thereby wiping it out and saving the comet life!!
ahh the irony :tongue:

Theres always something about to destroy the world, whether it be a comet, nuclear war or the revival of disco music (Shudder)

If this comet is gonna hit I say we all get naked and freak out, 70’s style, if it doesn’t hit, then we put our clothes back on and act like nothing happened…

If the esteroid doesn’t get us, then there’s always the black hole thats moving towards our solar system, and unless we get off this damn rock there’s no way in hell we’re ganna stop THAT! (they say it will destroy the solar system in about 3 million years or so)

I think we’ve survived a lot, and some esteroid ain’t ganna stop us, at least I’m not intending on giving up anyway.

mystery

Yeah i know, and my wallet has a small black hole building up as well, if I don’t get an extra job this summer. I predict it will become critical in 8 years and suck in the whole earth in a matter of hours. Wait a minute, according to my equations (2004+8=x) it will be, you guessed it, 2012!! How ironic.

Of course by then I will be on the alien modership in warp drive bound for another solar system (can’t tell you which star, it’s part of the deal with the little guys to keep it confidential).

Don’t fear thought. Just hang in there for my book on how to make your house black-hole safe! :smile:

Easy, we could probably blow up Earth several times over using all of the world’s nukes.

A comet would be easy, and we would have plenty of nukes left over.

statistical probability?? Well im not too good with math, but…ok here im just building as i go so bear with me…

say that there is a 1 in 100,000 chance that a disaster of apocalyptic proportions will occur.

okay, then say that this chance is taken every second, and that the critical number is 13

the first second, the number hits at 14. Now, the next second, the number hits at 66,666. On the third second, what is it that prevents it from being 14 or 66,666???

Thus, it does not matter how long of time it is, inevitability theorem does not shorten the odds, the odds are still 1 in 100,000. In other words, every time you roll the 100,000 sided die (lol manifest one of those in an LD), it would still be a 1 in 100,000 chance.

I think though theres some complicated theorem that has multiple rolls as actually lessening the odds. I cannot come up with it at the moment, it just wouldnt make sense! But hey that may just be a statement of my ignorance.

What im wondering is how they calculate these chances, and how they calculate what it ‘lands on’ and how they figure out if something prevents a certain roll result from repeating (in which case if it did not repeat, wed be dead now)

As far as nukes go, i once read some totally scary shit about it, something like that the nukes are programmed to launch by themselves and that it is not possible (or very hard w/out password etc) to stop them once the sequence has started going. The thing is, there are so many nukes that long after humanity has been wiped off the face of the earth, nukes will still be flying back and forth and continuing to marr the face of the planet. Its so bad that its like an mutually agreed upon mentality to ensure no survivors (of a higher evolved than cell nature)

LOL, the perfect acronym would be MAD for Mutually Assured Destruction

well now for this to work… planes would have to kill millions of people, they haven’t yet…

but like i could see where 1000 years of plane crash deaths could be the same as 1 asteroid impact.

ahh okay i get it… say an asteroid kills a million people, but it only does it once, in a long long time

and that averages out to kill like 15 people per year, if you know, you were to spread it out over the time gap.

where as 15 people die per year in plane crashes, on average, maybe?

Something like that?

Theoretically asteroids then kill 15 people per year, but they obviously don’t…since they aren’t yearly/century-ly(?) events.

I guess something like that was meant… yeah…

now I really don’t think this is so…

for example… how many times can you roll a dice and NOT get 6?

Go ahead and try it? IF every second there were in a 1 in 100,000 chance of complete disaster, it would have happened by now… hmm… let me make a program…

Okay so I’m running the program, getting random numbers between 1 and 60, 34 is the number I want… I’m doing a trial of 60 15 times… it should be expected that I get no more than 4 each time, with an average of 1.

each number represents doing a 1 in 60 odds event 60 times
0
1
2
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
2
1
0
0

We see that it’s very unlikely to get all zeros…

the average is .733 actually… I don’t feel like putting it in my graphing calculator to get the other information…

here’s my code if anyone cares:

Private Sub Form_Load()
Dim intCnt As Integer
Dim intS As Integer
Dim intDice As Integer
Dim intP As Integer
For intP = 1 To 15
For intCnt = 1 To 60
Randomize (Timer)
intDice = Int((60 - 1 + 1) * Rnd + 1)
intCnt = intCnt + 1
If intDice = 34 Then
intS = intS + 1
End If
Next intCnt
MsgBox intS
intS = 0
Next intP
End Sub

The chances of having disaster are 0.00001 (you suggested). The chances of not having disaster are 0.99999. But what happens if we take this every second?

In two seconds, the chances of no disaster are 0.99999^2 (that is, squared)

How many seconds in a week? 606024*7 = 604,800

Chances of not having disaster in a week: 0.99999^604,800 = 0.0023625

A chance of 1 in 100,000 is small, but when you have that chance every second, it is very deceptive!

A more likely figure might by 1 in 100,000 every month.

How many months in a century? 12*100 = 1,200

Chances of not having disaster in a century: 0.99999^1,200 = 0.988

Sounds better :smile:

A horse gallops majestically into the thread.

Neeeeeeeeeigh! Whinnnnnnny!

The horse stops galloping for a moment, and takes a bite of some nearby grass.

WHAM!! A meteor strikes the horse!

Dozens of people from all around run to the scene of the accident.

“Look, the horse is dead!” one of them cries.

Another hands out baseball bats to each of the people in the crowd.

“Let’s beat the hell out of it!” Everyone cheers.

Actually , there is a 1 in 909,000 chance of that happening .
But that doesn’t really matter anymore …
After reading some of your posts I realized that worrying about it is just gonna make it come quicker . Humans can control their own destinies , and that is what makes us different from all of the other races . I finally realized that we must live our lives now , without worrying about tomorrow … We must all be grateful for the simple fact that we live …
I sincerely thank all of you !

I see some redundancy. I think that calculation has some redundancy in it. I’m pretty sure there’s redundancy in there.

:wink:

I have heard that it is many comets out there who can crash with the earth.
So I don’t doubt that the earth will be destroyed by a comet.

I heard alot of stories like this except I hear the comet was oging to crash into earth in 2019

apparently some time in the near future a super volcano under yellow stone park is going to errupt… I wouldnt want to be there when that happens

:eh:

  • Silva

No, there is nothing threatening Earth. There was one that originally was thought to hit earth in about 2020, but they recalculated it and discovered they were wrong and that it wouldn’t come close. There is a science foundation currently set aside for just the purpose of finding stuff that could hit Earth, and nothing is going to any time soon. Got this from Yahoo! News.

Are you suggesting that if we worry about a comet that somehow we are going to magically attract a comet to Earth?

They can only track the ones they find. What about a 100m diameter asteroid? If one was coming our way, the first signs would be a burning light in the sky, a big “BOOOM” followed by earthquakes. And a fresh crater somewhere.

It’s probably not a painful way to die thought. The kinetic energy would vaporise everything on “ground zero”.