Personally I equate the world “belief” with “faith” exclusively and leave knowledge to its own domain, even though both lead to feelings of certainty about something. Belief/faith is when you have no body of evidence to support what you want to hold a conviction in, and is something I can’t stomache even though I hemmed and hawed and vaccilated back and forth between all sorts of quasi-faith-based practices in my early teens. If I want to have conviction in something, I have to know I can do it.
But just because I have that conviction doesn’t mean I can suddenly empower myself to do whatever the hell I want. I’ve been meditating before going to bed for about a week now, quieting all my senses and brain before telling myself several time that I will have a lucid dream and explaining to myself in detail what I’ll do to get there: recognize dream signs, do an RC, realize I’m dreaming, etc… When I do this I know that what I’m explaining to myself is completely doable, there’s no faith involved because everything I’m telling myself to do has been replicated with great success and with great scientific verifiability among a wide swath of different people and I know that there’s nothing psychologically or physiologically anomolous with me that would prevent me from acheiving the same results. When I do this autosuggestion before bed, there is no doubt in my mind.
But just willing myself to do it does not work! I have never had an inducted lucid dream, and the last spontaneous lucid dream I had was 7-8 years ago. This is the same as someone who’s been bedridden for 8 years signing up to climb Mount St. Helens and and expecting to succeed because he knows or believes he can do it. You need to have developed essential skills to use in conjuction with your indomitable willpower or else it doesn’t matter how psyched you are about getting lucid.
Sorry for maybe being a little bitter, but it hasn’t just been this last week where I’ve been trying to LD. On and off for the last 5 years I’ve been trying, when I try I try knowing that with enough hard work and effort I will achieve my goal - but that hasn’t helped me in actually achieving one because my induction skills have remained crappy and underdeveloped on the side.
Believing you’ll make it from New York to a place whose location is a mystery to you is fine, but if you don’t have a map to use to find your way, you’re pretty well buggered. Ultimately, if you’re forced to begin without the enlightening advantage of being experienced with spontaneous lucid dreams and understanding what they feel like and how to incubate them, then all the enthusiasm and belief in the world won’t be able to replace those skills.
I don’t think I’m voicing my opinion eloquently enough - maybe I’ll try again alter. Suffice it to say that I do get a little uppity around people who tell me that all my honest failures were just a result of my not “believing” in myself enough even when I know better than anyone the amount of belief I have in myself every night when I go bed telling myself without a doubt in my mind that I will have a lucid dream tonight. That’s not enough. It takes experience and knowledge of the mechanics of lucid dreams, things I have not garnered any meaningful amount of yet.